To understand the comparison, it is worth revisiting what happened during the pandemic. “For years, around four million bicycles were sold annually in Germany,” recalls Dirk Zedler, Deputy Chairman of the industry association Zukunft Fahrrad. “In 2020, sales increased by nearly 20 percent. Customers went to first, second, and third bike dealers and still couldn’t find a bike because everything was sold out. As a result, some retailers placed orders for up to five times their usual volume.”
The situation was exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and production bottlenecks. Shimano reported lead times of up to 1,000 days for certain components. “When production ramped up at full speed in 2022, manufacturers in Asia produced not only the 2022 models but also those for 2023. At the same time, consumption declined – partly due to rising gas prices – and bike shops were suddenly flooded with inventory. I know manufacturers who set up large temporary tents on their premises just to store boxed bicycles,” Zedler summarizes. The toilet paper analogy highlights the core issue: those who stocked up heavily did not need to buy again for quite some time.
(...) Disrupted supply chains, extended production interruptions, followed by significant overproduction: within a short period, deliveries from Asia poured into Europe like an avalanche. “Some manufacturers ended up with excess inventory in the high six-figure range,” Zedler notes.
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WAREHOUSES ARE STILL NOT CLEARED
Wöll emphasizes which segment of the bicycle market is most affected: “When we talk about inventory levels and stock pressure, we are primarily talking about e-bikes. Gravel bikes and road bikes are selling well – that’s not the issue.” However, the success of these categories is also impacting the mountain bike segment: “Road bikes and gravel bikes have cannibalized the mountain bike market,” says Dirk Zedler.
(...) VSF representative Uwe Wöll does not see this as a major concern: “In the road bike segment, we would face challenges with models that are three or four years old. With e-bikes, it’s different – consumers have different expectations. The technology must function reliably, and the bike must fit their needs.” Zedler takes a more critical view: “Drivetrain manufacturers have introduced new product generations, as have motor manufacturers – but older inventory hasn’t become any better.” He points to another issue: some manufacturers must reproduce older frame designs because they still have motors that no longer fit into newer frames. “In the past, the frame and components were the primary value drivers of a bicycle. Today, battery and motor clearly dominate the value of an electric bike.”
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FORESIGHT
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Blume takes a far more concerned view of the current financial year: “Companies already facing liquidity constraints will find it extremely difficult. We are likely to see a consolidation process on a scale we have not experienced before – at least in the first two quarters.” He also views the weakening bike leasing market as a negative signal.
Dirk Zedler shares this cautious outlook: “I fear the crisis will persist for some time. I am concerned it could worsen. In 2025, there was very little favorable weather during the key sales season – we all have to hope for good cycling weather in 2026.” Spring weather in Europe is so critical for bicycle sales that it is even mentioned in reports by corporations in Taiwan. Road cyclists, in particular, will readily echo the hope for favorable conditions. The expectation is that 2026 will become a successful year for the bicycle industry – and that bicycles will never again be compared to toilet paper.
Author: Christian Bauer
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